KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

19%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.6¢Risks 16.55u

ICONNO 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.45u · ICON −83.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	7.0%	18.4%	9.3%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:26+00:00	7.0%	5.5%	3.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	7.0%	5.5%	3.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	7.0%	5.5%	3.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	3.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	3.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	3.3%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	3.3%	3.6%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00	17.5%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00	0.6%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	0.6%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00	0.6%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00	0.6%	5.5%	11.9%	3.6%	2.5%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00	0.6%	5.5%	11.9%	73.0%	2.5%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	0.6%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00	0.6%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00	0.6%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T03:33:14+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	3.3%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	2.2%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	2.2%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	2.2%	73.1%	2.5%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00	4.0%	5.0%	2.2%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	4.0%	5.0%	2.2%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	4.0%	5.0%	2.2%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	4.0%	5.0%	2.2%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	4.0%	1.5%	3.3%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	4.0%	1.5%	3.3%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	4.0%	1.5%	3.3%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	4.0%	1.5%	3.3%	14.1%	20.9%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	3.3%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T14:55:01+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	3.3%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	3.3%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	3.3%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T17:10:32+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	5.2%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	5.2%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	5.2%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	5.2%	14.4%	20.9%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	23.7%	1.5%	5.2%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	23.7%	1.5%	5.2%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	23.7%	1.5%	5.2%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	23.7%	1.5%	5.2%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	23.7%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	23.1%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	23.1%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	23.1%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	7.1%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	12.9%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	12.9%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	12.9%	17.0%	1.1%
2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00	18.5%	1.3%	12.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	18.5%	1.3%	12.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	18.5%	1.3%	12.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	18.5%	1.3%	12.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	18.5%	1.3%	12.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00	18.5%	7.0%	6.7%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	18.5%	7.0%	6.7%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	18.5%	7.0%	6.7%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	18.5%	7.0%	6.7%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	4.0%	7.0%	6.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	4.0%	7.0%	6.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00	4.0%	6.7%	6.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	4.0%	6.7%	6.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	4.0%	6.7%	0.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	4.0%	6.7%	0.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	4.0%	6.7%	0.9%	25.6%	20.0%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	19.1%	6.7%	0.9%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	19.1%	6.7%	0.9%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	19.1%	6.7%	0.9%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	19.1%	6.7%	0.9%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	19.1%	6.7%	0.9%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	19.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	19.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	19.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00	11.1%	7.5%	9.8%	27.3%	0.8%
2026-10-05T07:42:24+00:00	3.5%	7.5%	9.8%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	3.5%	7.5%	9.8%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	3.5%	7.5%	9.8%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	3.5%	7.5%	9.8%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	3.5%	7.5%	9.8%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	3.5%	5.8%	6.5%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	3.5%	5.8%	6.5%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	3.5%	5.8%	6.5%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	18.7%	5.8%	6.5%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	18.7%	5.9%	6.6%	25.5%	6.1%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	18.7%	5.4%	6.6%	25.5%	6.1%
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	18.7%	5.4%	6.6%	25.5%	6.1%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	18.7%	5.4%	6.6%	25.5%	6.1%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	18.7%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	6.1%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	18.7%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	6.1%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	18.7%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	6.1%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	23.1%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	23.1%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	23.1%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	23.1%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	23.1%	5.4%	13.5%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	15.2%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00	27.9%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	11.4%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	19.4%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	27.5%	15.8%	16.3%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00	27.5%	15.8%	16.3%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00	27.5%	15.8%	16.3%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00	23.0%	15.8%	16.3%	25.5%	10.5%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	23.0%	15.9%	16.3%	25.5%	10.6%
2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00	23.0%	15.8%	16.3%	25.5%	10.6%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	23.0%	15.8%	16.3%	25.5%	10.6%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	23.0%	15.8%	16.3%	25.5%	10.6%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	23.0%	15.8%	12.9%	25.5%	10.6%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	23.0%	15.8%	12.9%	25.5%	10.6%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	23.0%	15.8%	12.9%	25.5%	10.6%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	31.4%	15.8%	12.9%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	31.4%	15.8%	12.9%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	31.4%	15.8%	12.9%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	31.4%	15.8%	12.9%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	31.4%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	31.4%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	31.4%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	31.4%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T04:20:26+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	19.4%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	18.6%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	18.6%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	18.6%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	34.7%	16.3%	18.6%	39.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	36.7%	16.3%	18.6%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	36.7%	16.3%	18.6%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	36.7%	16.3%	18.6%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	36.7%	16.3%	18.6%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	36.7%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	36.7%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	36.7%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	8.8%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	24.9%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	24.9%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	48.1%	16.7%	24.9%	41.3%	14.8%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	35.8%	16.7%	24.9%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	35.8%	16.7%	24.9%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	35.8%	16.7%	24.9%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	35.8%	16.7%	24.9%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	35.8%	16.7%	24.9%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	35.8%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	35.8%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	35.8%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T03:06:45+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	7.8%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	9.3%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	9.3%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	31.4%	20.2%	9.3%	27.1%	10.7%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	28.3%	20.2%	9.3%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	28.3%	20.2%	9.3%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	28.3%	20.2%	9.3%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	28.3%	20.2%	9.3%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	28.3%	20.2%	9.3%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T15:16:01+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	21.2%	12.0%	6.7%	21.1%	7.0%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	28.3%	12.0%	6.7%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	28.3%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	28.3%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	28.3%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T03:19:12+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	3.8%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	8.6%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	8.6%	18.9%	1.4%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	31.7%	11.3%	8.6%	18.9%	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	32%	74.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	73.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	72.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	72.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	1%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗