KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 03 · 10:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

68%

49%

39%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.1¢Risks 49.05u

ICONNO 50.9¢Risks 50.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.95u · ICON −50.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	25.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	97.4%	—	34.6%	55.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	1.0%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	0.0%	96.4%	0.0%	—	61.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	0.0%	97.9%	62.9%	—	81.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	0.0%	98.7%	27.7%	—	71.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	97.0%	99.0%	88.5%	—	85.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	96.1%	99.6%	45.0%	—	89.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	88.5%	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	98.8%	99.9%	93.0%	—	97.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.9%	—	93.9%	—	98.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.6%	—	99.9%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	82.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	76.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	74.0°F	8.6°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	73.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	71.4°F	7.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	58.1°F	9.7°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗