KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

95%

92%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 96.0¢Risks 24.01u

HRESNO 3.9¢Risks 0.99u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.99u · HRES −0.99u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	36.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	96.4%	—	29.2%	49.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	85.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.0%	0.6%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	0.0%	94.8%	0.0%	—	54.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	0.0%	96.8%	55.8%	—	76.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	0.0%	98.0%	21.6%	—	64.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	95.3%	98.4%	84.1%	—	80.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	93.9%	99.3%	36.9%	—	85.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	83.8%	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	98.0%	99.7%	89.5%	—	95.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	99.6%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.8%	—	90.6%	—	96.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.9%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	99.9%	97.5%	—	99.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	98.5%	—	99.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.5%	—	99.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	0.3%	—	99.8%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	99.7%	99.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	85.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	85.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	99%	85.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	80.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	84%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 04 · 15:52 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗