KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

96%

92%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 95.7¢Risks 23.91u

EPSNO 4.3¢Risks 1.09u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +1.09u · EPS −1.09u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T08:04:35+00:00	34.6%	29.0%	53.8%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	34.6%	29.0%	53.8%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	34.6%	29.0%	53.8%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	34.6%	29.0%	53.8%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	34.6%	25.5%	31.2%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	34.6%	25.5%	31.2%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	34.6%	25.5%	31.2%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	34.6%	25.5%	31.2%	86.9%	3.7%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	31.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T14:55:01+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	31.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	31.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	31.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T17:10:32+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	49.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	49.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	49.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	93.4%	25.5%	49.2%	86.8%	3.7%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	93.9%	25.5%	49.2%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	93.9%	25.5%	49.2%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	93.9%	25.5%	49.2%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	93.9%	25.5%	49.2%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	93.9%	24.8%	67.3%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	93.9%	24.8%	67.3%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	93.9%	24.8%	67.3%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	93.9%	24.8%	67.3%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	96.4%	24.8%	67.3%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	96.4%	24.8%	67.3%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	96.4%	24.8%	67.3%	77.0%	1.3%
2026-10-06T15:29:30+00:00	98.7%	91.2%	99.7%	89.3%	98.1%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	98.7%	91.2%	99.7%	89.3%	98.1%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	98.7%	91.2%	99.7%	89.3%	98.1%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	98.7%	91.2%	99.1%	89.3%	98.1%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	98.7%	91.2%	99.1%	89.3%	98.1%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	98.7%	91.2%	99.1%	89.3%	98.1%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	99.3%	91.2%	99.1%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	99.3%	91.2%	99.1%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	99.3%	91.2%	99.1%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	99.3%	91.2%	99.1%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	99.3%	91.6%	98.8%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	99.3%	91.6%	98.8%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	99.3%	91.6%	98.8%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	99.3%	91.6%	98.8%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	99.5%	91.6%	98.8%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	99.5%	91.6%	98.8%	96.1%	99.7%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	99.5%	91.6%	98.8%	96.1%	99.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	88.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	87.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	99%	83.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	84.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	80.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	84%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	79%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗