KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

96%

92%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 95.7¢Risks 23.91u

EPSNO 4.3¢Risks 1.09u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +1.09u · EPS −1.09u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	17.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	95.0%	—	24.2%	43.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	0.0%	92.6%	0.0%	—	47.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	0.0%	95.2%	48.5%	—	70.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	0.0%	96.8%	16.4%	—	57.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	93.1%	97.4%	78.8%	—	73.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	91.0%	98.8%	29.3%	—	80.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	78.0%	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	96.6%	99.5%	84.9%	—	93.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	99.2%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	99.6%	—	86.1%	—	94.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	99.8%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.9%	99.8%	95.6%	—	99.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	99.9%	97.2%	—	98.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.9%	99.8%	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	99.9%	99.0%	—	99.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	0.1%	—	99.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.5%	99.3%	99.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.1%	—	99.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	88.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	87.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	99%	83.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	84.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	80.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	84%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	79%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗