KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 05 · 15:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

86%

56%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

EPSNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.05u · EPS −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	93.2%	—	19.7%	37.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	67.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	0.0%	89.8%	0.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	0.0%	93.1%	41.3%	—	63.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	0.0%	95.2%	12.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	90.0%	95.9%	72.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	87.1%	98.0%	22.5%	—	74.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	71.2%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	94.6%	99.1%	79.2%	—	90.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	98.6%	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.1%	—	80.4%	—	91.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	99.7%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.8%	99.6%	92.8%	—	98.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.7%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	99.8%	99.7%	95.1%	—	96.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.8%	99.6%	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	99.7%	98.0%	—	99.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	99.9%	0.0%	—	99.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	96.9%	98.5%	99.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	98.0%	—	99.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.5%	—	99.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.8%	—	99.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	99.9%	99.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	85.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
ICON	94%	85.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	82.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	77.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	74.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 04 · 04:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗