KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

49%

47%

23%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.7¢Risks 51.65u

EPSNO 48.3¢Risks 48.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.35u · EPS −48.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	54.8%	—	1.3%	4.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.0%	37.6%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	0.0%	43.4%	3.1%	—	9.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	0.0%	47.7%	0.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	30.1%	47.6%	11.5%	—	8.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	22.5%	56.6%	0.4%	—	10.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	8.5%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	35.4%	64.6%	12.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	61.8%	—	11.0%	—	23.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	71.6%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	76.8%	68.7%	23.2%	—	46.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	67.4%	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	69.7%	67.0%	25.1%	—	32.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	71.2%	59.5%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	76.2%	59.7%	34.1%	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	74.2%	75.1%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	78.5%	74.0%	22.4%	32.0%	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	80.9%	76.6%	25.3%	—	41.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	79.2%	77.3%	25.6%	—	52.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	73.1%	78.1%	25.9%	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	73.9%	81.8%	26.2%	59.3%	35.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	76.8%	81.8%	23.2%	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	73.2%	80.9%	21.2%	54.3%	60.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	81.9%	79.8%	20.2%	—	47.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	73.7%	78.6%	19.2%	63.9%	43.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	94.2%	90.1%	51.6%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	89.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	75%	87.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	85.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	83.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗