KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

49%

47%

23%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.7¢Risks 51.65u

EPSNO 48.3¢Risks 48.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.35u · EPS −48.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:45+00:00	77.0%	17.2%	39.4%	40.3%	74.5%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	77.0%	17.2%	39.4%	40.3%	74.5%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	77.0%	17.2%	39.4%	40.3%	74.5%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	77.0%	17.2%	53.6%	40.3%	74.5%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	77.0%	17.2%	53.6%	40.3%	74.5%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	77.0%	17.2%	53.6%	40.3%	74.5%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	81.5%	17.2%	53.6%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	81.5%	17.2%	53.6%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	81.5%	17.2%	53.6%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	81.5%	17.2%	53.6%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	81.5%	17.2%	53.6%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	81.5%	23.8%	50.0%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	81.5%	23.8%	50.0%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	81.5%	23.8%	50.0%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	78.1%	23.8%	50.0%	55.8%	74.2%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	78.2%	23.8%	50.0%	55.8%	74.1%
2026-10-08T15:16:01+00:00	78.2%	23.0%	50.0%	55.8%	74.1%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	78.2%	23.0%	50.0%	55.8%	74.1%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	78.2%	23.0%	50.0%	55.8%	74.1%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	78.2%	23.0%	50.0%	55.8%	74.1%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	78.2%	23.0%	50.0%	55.8%	74.1%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	78.2%	23.0%	50.0%	55.8%	74.1%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	50.0%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	50.0%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	50.0%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	50.0%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	50.0%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	47.4%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	47.4%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	79.6%	23.0%	47.4%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	80.3%	23.0%	47.4%	49.0%	75.0%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	80.3%	23.0%	47.4%	49.0%	75.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	89.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	75%	87.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	85.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	83.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗