KMSP / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

12%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.00u

EPSNO 77.0¢Risks 77.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +77.00u · EPS −77.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	31.3%	—	0.2%	1.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.0%	15.3%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.0%	18.4%	0.5%	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	20.5%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	9.3%	19.5%	2.3%	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	5.6%	25.1%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	10.5%	30.7%	2.1%	—	5.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	23.5%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	26.6%	—	1.6%	—	5.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	35.2%	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	40.4%	31.3%	4.4%	—	14.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	29.1%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	30.3%	27.6%	4.4%	—	6.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	30.7%	20.5%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	35.1%	19.8%	6.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	31.5%	32.6%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	35.2%	30.0%	2.7%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	37.0%	31.4%	3.1%	—	7.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	33.1%	30.9%	2.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	24.8%	30.2%	2.6%	—	7.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	24.0%	33.1%	2.4%	13.4%	4.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	25.3%	31.2%	1.7%	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	20.2%	28.0%	1.2%	8.9%	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	27.2%	24.8%	0.9%	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	17.1%	21.4%	0.7%	11.0%	4.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	46.7%	35.5%	5.3%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	89.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	87.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	9%	84.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	85.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261010-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 05 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Minneapolis · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗