KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 04 · 10:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

93%

64%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.8¢Risks 50.80u

ICONNO 49.2¢Risks 49.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.20u · ICON −49.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	27.9%	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	0.5%	49.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	95.8%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	0.0%	96.4%	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	0.1%	83.4%	29.8%	—	87.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	80.1%	79.0%	46.4%	—	90.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	72.4%	83.1%	34.4%	—	95.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	95.5%	91.9%	57.1%	—	98.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	98.6%	—	99.8%	—	99.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	100.0%	88.7%	99.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	100.0%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%	99.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	60.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	85.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	80.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	76.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	72.1°F	10.4°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	69.0°F	10.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	47.8°F	9.7°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗