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KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 04 · 10:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
97%
WN2
93%
EPS
64%
ICON
2%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 50.8¢Risks 50.80u
VS
ICONNO 49.2¢Risks 49.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.20u · ICON −49.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:0010-04 07:2910-04 09:0010-04 10:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:0099.9%63.5%93.1%96.7%1.7%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:0099.9%63.5%93.1%96.7%1.7%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:0099.9%63.5%93.1%96.7%1.7%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:0099.9%63.5%93.1%96.7%1.7%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:0099.9%63.5%93.1%96.7%1.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%85.9°F5.6°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
IFS HRES97%80.2°F6.3°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 293%76.4°F5.3°F2026-10-03 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%72.1°F10.4°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
National Blend52%69.0°F10.8°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
ICON2%47.8°F9.7°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗