KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 05 · 03:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

95%

87%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

ICONNO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.40u · ICON −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	16.2%	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.1%	33.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	89.3%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	0.0%	90.1%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	0.0%	67.0%	14.5%	—	73.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	61.6%	60.1%	26.0%	—	76.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	50.8%	64.9%	16.4%	—	86.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	86.4%	78.8%	33.7%	—	94.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	94.2%	—	98.9%	—	95.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	99.3%	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	100.0%	70.9%	97.6%	—	98.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	99.8%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.4%	99.3%	97.4%	—	98.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	100.0%	99.8%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	99.8%	94.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	95.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	27.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	85.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	82.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	77.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	72.0°F	11.9°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
ICON	4%	54.3°F	9.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 04 · 11:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗