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KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 05 · 03:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
95%
EPS
95%
WN2
87%
ICON
4%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u
VS
ICONNO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.40u · ICON −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00AIFS Single: 99.5% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.6% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.6% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.6% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.6% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.6% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.6% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.2% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.2% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.2% · 2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.2% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00IFS HRES: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00IFS HRES: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00IFS HRES: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:0010-04 11:1610-04 19:3810-05 03:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:0099.5%94.0%95.3%91.5%0.7%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:0099.5%94.0%95.3%91.5%0.7%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:0099.5%94.0%95.3%91.5%0.7%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:0099.5%94.0%95.3%91.5%0.7%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:0094.5%94.0%95.2%91.4%0.8%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:0094.5%94.3%95.2%91.4%0.8%
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:0094.5%94.3%95.2%91.4%0.8%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:0094.5%94.3%95.2%91.4%0.8%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:0094.5%94.3%82.5%91.4%0.8%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:0094.5%94.3%82.5%91.4%0.8%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:0094.5%94.3%82.5%91.4%0.8%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:0099.0%94.3%82.5%94.9%3.9%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:0099.0%94.3%82.5%94.9%3.9%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:0099.0%94.3%82.5%94.9%3.9%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:0099.0%94.3%82.5%94.9%3.9%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:0099.0%94.3%82.5%94.9%3.9%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:0099.0%94.6%86.8%95.1%3.9%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:0099.0%94.6%86.8%95.1%3.9%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:0099.0%94.6%86.8%95.1%3.9%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:0099.3%94.6%86.8%95.1%3.9%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:0099.3%94.6%86.8%95.1%3.9%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:0099.3%94.6%86.8%95.1%3.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%85.3°F5.6°F2026-10-04 18:00Pending
IFS HRES95%82.0°F6.4°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble95%77.6°F3.8°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 287%77.0°F4.9°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
National Blend52%72.0°F11.9°F2026-10-04 06:00Pending
ICON4%54.3°F9.7°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 04 · 11:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗