KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

93%

89%

88%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 92.2¢Risks 23.04u

WN2NO 7.9¢Risks 1.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +1.96u · WN2 −1.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	47.4%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	0.0%	47.3%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	0.0%	16.6%	0.7%	—	21.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	12.0%	11.3%	1.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	6.5%	12.5%	0.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	30.9%	21.2%	2.2%	—	50.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	45.8%	—	72.8%	—	51.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	77.4%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	96.9%	11.3%	58.7%	—	66.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	86.5%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	74.9%	72.6%	53.7%	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	94.1%	85.2%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	94.6%	82.9%	37.6%	—	84.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	93.7%	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	96.8%	97.4%	36.9%	—	82.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	87.9%	95.0%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	87.5%	94.7%	61.8%	—	88.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	95.2%	97.3%	0.2%	—	88.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	98.2%	97.3%	60.4%	97.1%	87.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	94.5%	96.9%	52.4%	—	91.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	98.9%	98.0%	65.8%	—	95.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	99.4%	98.7%	60.2%	—	94.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	99.4%	99.3%	64.4%	94.7%	92.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	99.9%	99.5%	61.0%	—	97.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	100.0%	99.7%	78.8%	98.8%	99.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	100.0%	99.6%	84.7%	—	96.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	100.0%	99.8%	81.9%	99.9%	98.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	86.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	83.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	84.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	83.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗