KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

93%

89%

88%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 92.2¢Risks 23.04u

WN2NO 7.9¢Risks 1.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +1.96u · WN2 −1.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00	78.6%	69.7%	69.0%	73.9%	62.8%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	78.6%	69.7%	72.4%	73.9%	62.8%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	78.6%	69.7%	72.4%	73.9%	62.8%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	78.6%	69.7%	72.4%	73.9%	62.8%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	78.6%	69.7%	72.4%	73.9%	62.8%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	78.9%	69.7%	72.4%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	78.9%	69.7%	72.4%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	78.9%	69.7%	72.4%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	78.9%	69.7%	72.4%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	78.9%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	78.9%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	78.9%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.3%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.2%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.2%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.2%
2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	77.5%	86.4%	98.2%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	82.1%	86.4%	98.2%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	82.1%	86.4%	98.2%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	77.0%	90.9%	82.1%	86.4%	98.2%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	84.1%	90.9%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	84.1%	90.9%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	84.1%	90.9%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	84.1%	90.9%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	84.1%	90.9%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	84.1%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	84.1%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	84.1%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	82.1%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	86.6%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	86.6%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	86.6%	78.2%	82.3%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	88.1%	91.3%	86.6%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	88.1%	91.3%	86.6%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	88.1%	91.3%	86.6%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	88.1%	91.3%	86.6%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	88.1%	91.3%	86.6%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	88.1%	93.3%	87.7%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	88.1%	93.3%	87.7%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	88.1%	93.3%	87.7%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	88.5%	93.3%	87.7%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	88.6%	93.2%	87.7%	94.1%	96.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	86.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	83.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	84.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	83.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗