KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

63%

62%

50%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

EPSNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · EPS −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	1.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.0%	22.8%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.0%	4.7%	0.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	2.8%	2.6%	0.2%	—	7.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	1.1%	2.8%	0.1%	—	11.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	9.7%	5.5%	0.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	17.3%	—	40.9%	—	21.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	45.7%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	83.9%	1.8%	25.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	58.0%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	40.0%	37.3%	20.3%	—	28.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	73.2%	53.8%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	73.7%	49.0%	9.8%	—	51.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	70.1%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	79.5%	81.7%	8.6%	—	45.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	54.2%	72.1%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	52.2%	69.9%	21.3%	—	54.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	70.4%	78.6%	0.0%	—	53.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	82.5%	77.6%	18.3%	76.7%	48.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	65.3%	74.7%	12.6%	—	57.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	84.9%	79.2%	19.9%	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	88.5%	82.6%	15.0%	—	62.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	88.0%	86.6%	16.5%	60.6%	52.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	96.5%	87.5%	13.2%	—	68.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	98.1%	89.8%	25.6%	78.8%	81.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	97.8%	86.4%	31.1%	—	63.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	97.6%	91.1%	25.0%	94.3%	75.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.4%	99.6%	97.4%	77.2%	—	99.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	86.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	86.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	84.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	84.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	83.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗