KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

63%

62%

50%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

EPSNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · EPS −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00	66.2%	46.9%	60.6%	63.1%	83.2%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	66.2%	46.9%	60.6%	63.1%	83.2%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	66.2%	46.9%	60.6%	63.1%	83.2%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	66.2%	46.9%	68.4%	63.1%	83.2%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	66.2%	46.9%	68.4%	63.1%	83.2%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	66.2%	46.9%	68.4%	63.1%	83.2%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	71.2%	46.9%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	71.2%	46.9%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	71.2%	46.9%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	71.2%	46.9%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	71.2%	46.9%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	71.2%	46.9%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	71.2%	51.4%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	71.2%	51.4%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	72.8%	51.4%	68.4%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	72.8%	51.4%	68.3%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	72.8%	50.0%	68.3%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00	72.8%	50.0%	68.3%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	72.8%	50.0%	68.3%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	72.8%	50.0%	62.6%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	72.8%	50.0%	62.6%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	72.8%	50.0%	62.6%	73.8%	48.9%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	79.6%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	79.6%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	79.6%	50.0%	62.6%	62.5%	79.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	86.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	86.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	84.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	84.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	83.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗