KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

54%

51%

43%

30%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.5¢Risks 48.45u

EPSNO 51.5¢Risks 51.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.55u · EPS −51.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:16+00:00	63.3%	24.1%	37.4%	43.2%	60.0%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	63.3%	24.1%	37.4%	43.2%	60.0%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	63.3%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	60.0%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	63.3%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	60.0%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	63.3%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	60.0%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	62.8%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	62.8%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	62.8%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	62.8%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	62.8%	24.1%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	62.8%	30.3%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	62.8%	30.3%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	62.8%	30.3%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	66.5%	30.4%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	66.5%	30.4%	53.9%	43.2%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	87.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	85.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	51%	85.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	84.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗