KMSP / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

54%

51%

43%

30%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.5¢Risks 48.45u

EPSNO 51.5¢Risks 51.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.55u · EPS −51.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	14.8%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.0%	13.9%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	0.0%	2.1%	0.0%	—	3.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	1.1%	1.0%	0.1%	—	3.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	0.4%	1.1%	0.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	4.5%	2.3%	0.1%	—	11.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	8.7%	—	25.8%	—	11.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	29.6%	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	70.9%	0.6%	13.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	40.2%	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	23.7%	21.6%	9.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	55.7%	35.2%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	55.8%	30.4%	3.8%	—	32.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	51.0%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	62.2%	65.1%	3.0%	—	26.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	33.5%	52.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	31.1%	48.9%	9.0%	—	33.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	48.9%	59.0%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	63.7%	57.0%	6.8%	55.8%	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	41.6%	52.4%	4.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	65.8%	57.4%	7.1%	—	43.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	70.9%	61.5%	4.6%	—	37.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	69.3%	66.9%	5.0%	34.3%	27.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	86.8%	67.5%	3.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	91.1%	70.7%	8.3%	52.9%	57.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	89.5%	63.3%	10.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	88.3%	71.0%	7.1%	78.6%	45.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	96.6%	86.9%	46.7%	—	93.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	87.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	85.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	51%	85.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	84.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗