KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

92%

89%

89%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 94.6¢Risks 47.30u

ICONNO 5.4¢Risks 2.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +2.70u · ICON −2.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	77.2%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	87.0%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	90.2%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	0.6%	10.9%	0.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	5.3%	13.2%	0.4%	—	60.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	3.2%	—	98.0%	—	48.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	81.6%	0.5%	84.6%	—	15.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.9%	41.7%	76.2%	—	45.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	73.3%	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	24.1%	94.6%	77.2%	—	82.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	16.1%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	84.0%	99.8%	82.2%	—	89.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	33.5%	100.0%	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	21.8%	97.7%	98.2%	—	93.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	83.0%	97.3%	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	94.2%	98.2%	99.1%	—	97.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	81.7%	98.9%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	97.2%	98.7%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	96.5%	100.0%	86.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	74.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	71.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	89%	71.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	66.0°F	10.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗