KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

80%

24%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.65u

AIFSNO 52.4¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.35u · AIFS −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	68.4%	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	79.4%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	83.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	0.2%	5.6%	0.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	2.4%	6.9%	0.1%	—	45.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	1.3%	—	95.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	69.2%	0.1%	73.2%	—	7.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	26.5%	61.5%	—	29.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	57.6%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	12.7%	87.8%	62.1%	—	68.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	7.5%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	70.3%	99.1%	67.8%	—	78.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	18.4%	100.0%	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	10.2%	93.5%	94.6%	—	85.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	67.4%	92.4%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	85.5%	94.2%	96.8%	—	92.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	64.5%	96.0%	—	—	98.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	91.5%	95.3%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	89.3%	100.0%	70.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	78.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	72.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	66.0°F	12.0°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	63.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	57.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	53.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗