KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

80%

24%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.65u

AIFSNO 52.4¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.35u · AIFS −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00	5.8%	82.4%	11.2%	61.3%	11.1%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	5.8%	82.4%	1.5%	61.3%	11.1%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	5.8%	82.4%	1.5%	61.3%	11.1%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	5.8%	82.4%	1.5%	61.3%	11.1%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	5.8%	82.4%	1.5%	61.3%	11.1%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	0.2%	82.4%	1.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	0.2%	82.4%	1.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	0.2%	82.4%	1.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	0.2%	82.4%	1.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	0.2%	95.1%	0.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	0.2%	95.1%	0.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	0.2%	95.1%	0.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	0.2%	95.1%	0.5%	24.5%	80.0%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	0.2%	95.0%	0.5%	24.4%	80.0%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	0.2%	95.0%	0.5%	24.4%	80.0%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	0.2%	95.1%	0.5%	24.4%	80.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	78.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	72.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	66.0°F	12.0°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	63.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	57.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	53.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗