KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

85%

78%

70%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

ICONNO 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.55u · ICON −48.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	53.2%	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	64.2%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	69.3%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.6%	2.1%	0.0%	—	25.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.2%	—	86.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	46.0%	0.0%	50.8%	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	10.4%	36.9%	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	32.6%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	3.6%	69.3%	36.3%	—	43.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	1.7%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	43.6%	95.4%	40.9%	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	5.3%	99.9%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	2.3%	78.2%	81.0%	—	62.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	38.2%	75.1%	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.2%	78.8%	86.1%	—	74.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	33.5%	83.1%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	70.8%	80.2%	99.1%	—	99.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	65.4%	99.8%	37.8%	—	99.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	99.1%	99.8%	99.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	97.5%	98.6%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.8%	100.0%	98.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	99.9%	99.5%	95.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	100.0%	100.0%	92.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	100.0%	100.0%	96.3%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	98.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	100.0%	98.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	73.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
ICON	3%	63.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗