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KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
85%
AIFS
78%
WN2
70%
ICON
3%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.45u
VS
ICONNO 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.55u · ICON −48.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00AIFS Single: 78.4% · 2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.2% · 2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.2% · 2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.2% · 2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00IFS HRES: 84.8% · 2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:0010-09 03:1910-09 09:2210-09 15:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T03:19:13+00:0056.1%100.0%52.2%76.4%57.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:0056.1%100.0%52.2%76.4%57.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:0056.1%100.0%52.2%76.4%57.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:0056.1%100.0%69.7%76.4%57.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:0056.1%100.0%69.7%76.4%57.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:0056.1%100.0%69.7%76.4%57.5%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:0047.2%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:0078.4%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.7%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:0078.5%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.9%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:0078.5%100.0%69.7%84.8%2.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%82.2°F3.0°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
IFS HRES85%75.1°F4.5°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
AIFS Single78%73.9°F4.3°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%72.4°F3.7°F2026-10-08 18:00Pending
National Blend58%72.0°F7.8°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%71.0°F3.9°F2026-10-09 02:00Pending
ICON3%63.0°F4.0°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗