KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

77%

42%

29%

18%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

ICONNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.50u · ICON −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	9.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	11.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	—	15.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	1.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	0.3%	—	0.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	19.6%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%	3.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	1.9%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	2.1%	4.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.0%	2.5%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.7%	1.5%	26.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	0.3%	43.3%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	19.9%	38.5%	34.1%	—	41.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	8.7%	13.2%	41.6%	—	69.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	37.7%	37.7%	50.0%	98.2%	69.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	23.8%	46.1%	7.7%	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	25.1%	13.4%	2.0%	97.8%	48.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	47.2%	76.8%	0.8%	—	41.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	47.1%	50.0%	1.3%	84.6%	62.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	57.5%	92.5%	1.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	59.4%	95.9%	1.8%	92.9%	23.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	48.4%	88.5%	6.8%	—	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	86.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	83.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	83.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	80.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	79.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	18%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗