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KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
89%
EPS
77%
WN2
42%
AIFS
29%
ICON
18%
Consensus
54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u
VS
ICONNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.50u · ICON −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 46.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 46.1% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00AIFS Single: 46.1% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00AIFS Single: 46.1% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.0% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0010-11 04:3010-11 09:4810-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:0046.1%70.1%15.1%67.8%18.4%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:0046.1%70.1%48.7%67.8%18.4%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:0046.1%70.1%48.7%67.8%18.4%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:0046.1%70.1%48.7%67.8%18.4%
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:0033.5%70.1%48.7%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:0033.5%70.1%48.7%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:0033.5%70.1%48.7%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:0033.5%70.1%48.7%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:0033.5%70.1%48.7%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:0033.5%77.0%41.9%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:0033.5%77.0%41.9%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:0033.5%77.0%41.9%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:0029.0%77.0%41.9%88.6%18.4%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0029.0%76.8%41.9%88.6%18.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES89%86.0°F3.7°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble77%83.8°F3.1°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
National Blend61%83.0°F5.5°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%82.0°F3.1°F2026-10-11 02:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%80.9°F2.9°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single29%79.3°F4.0°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending
ICON18%78.3°F3.5°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗