KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

56%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.8¢Risks 30.75u

WN2NO 69.2¢Risks 69.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.25u · WN2 −69.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.9%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	5.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	—	8.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	9.4%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	51.9%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	1.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	1.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.0%	0.6%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	0.3%	11.9%	—	19.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.1%	23.1%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.6%	19.1%	16.0%	—	21.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.5%	4.3%	20.8%	—	46.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	17.4%	17.4%	26.6%	92.9%	45.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.7%	22.8%	1.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.9%	3.7%	0.3%	91.1%	24.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	22.1%	51.4%	0.1%	—	18.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	21.2%	23.4%	0.2%	61.4%	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	28.5%	75.2%	0.2%	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.0%	82.9%	0.2%	75.0%	6.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.2%	64.5%	1.0%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	60%	84.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	84.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	78.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	77.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗