KMSP / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

56%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.8¢Risks 30.75u

WN2NO 69.2¢Risks 69.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.25u · WN2 −69.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00	14.6%	53.8%	18.7%	74.9%	7.1%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	14.6%	53.8%	18.7%	74.9%	7.1%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	14.6%	53.8%	18.7%	74.9%	7.1%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	14.6%	53.8%	11.0%	74.9%	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	14.6%	53.8%	11.0%	74.9%	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	14.6%	53.8%	11.0%	74.9%	7.1%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	8.7%	53.8%	11.0%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	8.7%	53.8%	11.0%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	8.7%	53.8%	11.0%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	8.7%	53.8%	11.0%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	8.7%	53.8%	11.0%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00	8.7%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	8.7%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	8.7%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.8%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.0%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.0%	59.5%	7.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	10.9%	56.2%	2.0%	59.5%	7.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	60%	84.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	84.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	78.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	77.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261012-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗