KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

64%

29%

26%

13%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.0¢Risks 43.00u

AIFSNO 57.0¢Risks 57.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.00u · AIFS −57.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	27.9%	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	33.0%	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	9.5%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	3.4%	98.9%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	45.1%	—	65.7%	—	33.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	55.8%	4.9%	4.9%	—	19.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	36.5%	39.4%	6.5%	—	37.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	21.2%	64.1%	16.9%	—	61.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	29.3%	74.9%	31.5%	—	73.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	55.1%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	49.1%	80.4%	71.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	38.5%	48.2%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	60.0%	48.2%	27.4%	—	74.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	64.8%	36.1%	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	76.8%	54.9%	96.5%	—	92.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	85.4%	89.5%	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	88.2%	76.5%	92.6%	—	90.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	85.0%	83.1%	—	—	91.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	85.7%	96.0%	95.3%	83.8%	93.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	90.3%	99.2%	78.6%	—	97.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	90.6%	99.6%	96.5%	92.0%	96.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	92.2%	100.0%	89.8%	—	96.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	86.3%	99.5%	94.5%	95.4%	91.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	96.5%	99.9%	97.9%	—	93.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	97.2%	99.9%	93.5%	98.3%	91.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	96.8%	99.9%	88.9%	—	87.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	89.8%	99.8%	87.0%	83.7%	84.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	66.2%	99.7%	82.8%	—	79.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	57.9%	99.7%	82.9%	60.9%	81.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	74.6%	97.2%	70.5%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	65.3°F	12.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	61.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	58.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	54.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	54.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	51.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 06 · 20:01 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 58°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗