KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

67%

56%

25%

22%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

WN2NO 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.20u · WN2 −39.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	15.6%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	29.5%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	94.6%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	20.4%	—	38.2%	—	13.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	27.9%	0.9%	0.9%	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	13.4%	15.1%	1.1%	—	13.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.5%	33.0%	3.9%	—	30.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	8.3%	43.4%	9.3%	—	41.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	23.3%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	18.4%	49.1%	37.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	11.6%	17.2%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	25.1%	16.6%	6.3%	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	28.4%	9.6%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	40.4%	19.7%	79.7%	—	67.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	52.0%	59.9%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	56.1%	37.8%	66.0%	—	60.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	48.9%	45.8%	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	48.9%	74.5%	71.8%	45.6%	65.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	56.7%	90.3%	36.7%	—	80.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	55.8%	93.2%	74.0%	59.2%	73.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	58.4%	98.8%	52.4%	—	73.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	43.8%	90.5%	63.4%	66.9%	55.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	69.8%	96.3%	77.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	71.6%	95.4%	56.7%	78.0%	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	67.5%	94.6%	43.1%	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	42.8%	92.2%	37.2%	31.8%	33.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	13.6%	88.8%	28.5%	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	8.3%	86.6%	26.3%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	16.0%	59.8%	13.2%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	56%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	58.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	59.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗