KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

26%

16%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

WN2NO 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.15u · WN2 −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	59.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	4.9%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	5.7%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	11.7%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	82.4%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	—	15.8%	—	3.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.3%	0.1%	0.1%	—	1.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	3.6%	0.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	10.8%	0.5%	—	9.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.3%	15.7%	1.6%	—	14.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.6%	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.8%	18.4%	11.8%	—	9.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	3.2%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.5%	2.9%	0.7%	—	11.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.4%	1.2%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.1%	3.4%	44.2%	—	30.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	17.0%	22.6%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	19.0%	9.0%	26.8%	—	21.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	13.8%	12.1%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	13.1%	33.1%	30.1%	11.4%	24.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	16.8%	56.7%	7.1%	—	38.9%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.3%	62.6%	30.0%	17.5%	28.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	16.0%	85.5%	12.6%	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.0%	52.5%	18.2%	20.8%	13.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.9%	68.7%	29.1%	—	13.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	22.0%	63.2%	12.0%	28.4%	8.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.3%	58.3%	5.8%	—	5.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.1%	48.5%	3.7%	2.7%	2.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	38.1%	1.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	31.7%	1.3%	0.2%	1.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	7.9%	0.3%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	58.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	59.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗