KMSP / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

26%

16%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

WN2NO 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.15u · WN2 −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00	5.5%	93.5%	4.3%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	5.5%	93.5%	6.5%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	5.5%	93.5%	6.5%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	5.5%	93.5%	6.5%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00	3.4%	93.5%	6.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	3.4%	93.5%	6.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	3.4%	93.5%	6.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	3.4%	93.5%	6.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00	3.4%	93.5%	6.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	3.4%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	3.4%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	3.4%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.8%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	4.2%	98.8%	3.5%	32.2%	24.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	3.6%	98.8%	3.5%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	3.6%	98.8%	3.5%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	3.6%	98.8%	3.5%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	3.6%	98.8%	3.5%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	3.6%	98.8%	3.5%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00	3.6%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	3.6%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	3.6%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	7.9%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	3.8%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	3.8%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	4.0%	98.9%	3.8%	39.4%	14.2%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	2.4%	98.9%	3.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	2.4%	98.9%	3.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	2.4%	98.9%	3.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	2.4%	98.9%	3.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	2.4%	98.9%	3.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	2.4%	98.9%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	2.4%	100.0%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	2.4%	100.0%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.0%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	3.7%	100.0%	2.8%	22.6%	5.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	2.8%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	2.8%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	2.8%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	2.8%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	1.7%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	1.7%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	1.7%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	3.5%	100.0%	1.7%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	4.6%	100.0%	1.7%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	4.6%	100.0%	1.7%	26.0%	16.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	4.6%	100.0%	1.7%	26.0%	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	58.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	59.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗