KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

42%

27%

22%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

WN2NO 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.45u · WN2 −42.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	54.2%	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	77.2%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	3.6%	29.4%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	11.9%	92.3%	2.0%	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	38.5%	93.8%	18.4%	—	69.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	40.2%	88.2%	48.5%	—	63.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	28.8%	94.1%	42.1%	—	63.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	63.1%	83.8%	64.7%	—	74.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	56.8%	82.7%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	21.4%	79.8%	67.8%	—	68.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	64.1%	79.1%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	56.4%	79.7%	47.2%	—	71.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	56.6%	78.3%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	40.4%	76.0%	58.7%	—	74.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	47.0%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	71.5%	81.7%	43.9%	—	69.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	50.0%	70.2%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	54.4%	65.9%	27.3%	—	69.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	37.8%	76.9%	1.3%	—	71.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	43.0%	80.1%	20.7%	50.0%	60.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	35.9%	79.2%	33.6%	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	51.2%	75.4%	19.1%	33.1%	65.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	37.3%	80.9%	19.1%	—	60.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	33.1%	79.0%	17.3%	23.0%	72.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	43.1%	73.5%	18.2%	—	68.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	51.4%	68.2%	13.8%	20.2%	54.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	38.1%	77.6%	9.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	23.8%	87.5%	13.4%	29.0%	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.3%	50.0%	0.6%	—	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	62.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	60.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	57.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	56.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	56.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗