KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

42%

27%

22%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

WN2NO 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.45u · WN2 −42.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:46+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	66.5%	22.1%	40.3%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	66.5%	22.1%	40.3%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	66.5%	22.1%	40.3%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	69.4%	22.1%	40.3%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	69.4%	22.1%	40.3%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	69.4%	22.1%	40.3%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	44.0%	50.0%	69.4%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	44.0%	50.0%	69.4%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	44.0%	50.0%	69.4%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	44.0%	50.0%	69.4%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	44.0%	50.0%	69.4%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	44.0%	76.6%	67.1%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	44.0%	76.6%	67.1%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	44.0%	76.6%	67.1%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	46.2%	76.6%	67.1%	78.9%	60.3%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	46.2%	76.1%	67.1%	79.0%	60.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	37.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	23.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	37.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	23.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	37.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	23.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	37.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	23.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	37.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	23.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	42.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	27.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	42.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	27.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	42.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	27.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	42.2%	93.6%	21.5%	85.2%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	62.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	60.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	57.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	56.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	56.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗