KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

60%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

WN2NO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.20u · WN2 −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	38.5%	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	61.4%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	98.3%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.1%	14.7%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	81.6%	0.5%	—	33.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	19.9%	83.9%	7.4%	—	47.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	20.5%	73.0%	27.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	12.3%	83.2%	21.2%	—	39.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	38.5%	63.9%	40.1%	—	50.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	31.9%	61.8%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.3%	57.0%	42.2%	—	43.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	37.6%	55.4%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	29.7%	55.5%	22.3%	—	44.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	29.2%	52.8%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	16.5%	49.0%	30.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	20.4%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	41.8%	55.1%	17.6%	—	39.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	21.3%	39.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	23.8%	34.1%	7.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	45.5%	0.1%	—	38.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	14.7%	48.8%	4.5%	19.1%	27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.2%	46.4%	9.2%	—	29.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.2%	40.1%	3.5%	8.5%	29.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.8%	46.1%	3.2%	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.4%	42.0%	2.6%	4.0%	34.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.1%	33.8%	2.5%	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	14.6%	26.8%	1.5%	2.7%	16.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.5%	35.2%	0.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	48.4%	1.1%	4.1%	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	10.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	74%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	62.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	57.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	6%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	56.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 08 · 15:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗