KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

15%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.4¢Risks 31.35u

WN2NO 68.7¢Risks 68.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.65u · WN2 −68.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	28.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	96.4%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.4%	8.2%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.0%	70.8%	0.2%	—	21.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	11.3%	73.4%	3.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	11.4%	59.1%	16.0%	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.9%	71.2%	11.5%	—	25.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	23.8%	47.5%	25.1%	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	18.4%	44.9%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.9%	39.6%	26.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	22.2%	37.6%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	16.0%	37.3%	11.0%	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	15.4%	34.3%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.2%	30.4%	15.9%	—	28.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.2%	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	23.5%	34.9%	7.4%	—	21.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.2%	21.3%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.4%	16.9%	2.4%	—	19.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.2%	24.9%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.1%	27.0%	1.1%	7.2%	11.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	24.4%	2.7%	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	19.1%	0.7%	2.3%	12.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	22.8%	0.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	19.1%	0.4%	0.8%	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.7%	13.2%	0.4%	—	10.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	8.9%	0.2%	0.4%	4.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	12.8%	0.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	20.3%	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	64.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	59.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	57.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	56.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	55.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗