KMSP / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

15%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.4¢Risks 31.35u

WN2NO 68.7¢Risks 68.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.65u · WN2 −68.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:19:14+00:00	6.0%	46.0%	23.3%	39.2%	33.8%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	6.0%	46.0%	23.3%	39.2%	33.8%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	6.0%	46.0%	23.3%	39.2%	33.8%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	6.0%	46.0%	13.4%	39.2%	33.8%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	6.0%	46.0%	13.4%	39.2%	33.8%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	6.0%	46.0%	13.4%	39.2%	33.8%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	5.8%	46.0%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	5.8%	46.0%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	5.8%	46.0%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	5.8%	46.0%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	5.8%	46.0%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	5.8%	46.0%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	5.8%	52.1%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	5.8%	52.1%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	3.4%	52.1%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T14:42:09+00:00	3.4%	52.1%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	3.4%	51.4%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T16:13:18+00:00	3.4%	51.4%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	3.4%	51.4%	13.4%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	3.4%	51.4%	10.7%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	3.4%	51.4%	10.7%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	3.4%	51.4%	10.7%	52.1%	18.2%
2026-10-09T19:58:55+00:00	5.3%	51.4%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	5.3%	51.4%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-09T21:29:21+00:00	5.3%	51.4%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-09T22:14:38+00:00	5.3%	51.4%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-09T22:59:44+00:00	5.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	5.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	5.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	5.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T02:00:45+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T04:17:18+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	10.7%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T07:18:27+00:00	7.3%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	43.9%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	4.1%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	4.1%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	4.1%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	4.1%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	4.1%	50.0%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	4.1%	62.1%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T12:34:21+00:00	4.1%	62.1%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	4.1%	62.1%	6.2%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	3.7%	62.0%	6.2%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T14:53:55+00:00	3.7%	62.0%	6.2%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T15:39:29+00:00	3.7%	62.8%	6.2%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	3.7%	62.8%	6.2%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	3.7%	62.8%	3.8%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T17:54:59+00:00	3.7%	62.8%	3.8%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T18:40:22+00:00	3.7%	62.8%	3.8%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	3.7%	62.8%	3.8%	27.8%	7.2%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	5.4%	62.8%	3.8%	27.8%	28.6%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	5.4%	62.8%	3.8%	27.8%	28.6%
2026-10-10T21:41:29+00:00	5.4%	62.8%	3.8%	27.8%	28.6%
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	5.4%	62.8%	3.8%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	5.4%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	5.4%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	5.4%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	4.0%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	1.9%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	1.9%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	4.3%	62.8%	1.9%	28.8%	28.6%
2026-10-11T07:32:08+00:00	3.0%	62.8%	1.9%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	3.0%	62.8%	1.9%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	3.0%	62.8%	1.9%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	3.0%	62.8%	1.9%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T10:33:51+00:00	3.0%	62.8%	1.9%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	3.0%	63.9%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.6%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.1%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.1%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	3.0%	64.0%	1.1%	33.5%	28.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	2.7%	64.0%	1.1%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	2.7%	64.0%	1.1%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	2.7%	64.0%	1.1%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	2.7%	64.0%	1.1%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	2.7%	64.0%	1.1%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00	2.7%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	2.7%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	2.7%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T04:01:25+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	2.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	1.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	1.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	2.9%	67.1%	1.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	2.4%	67.1%	1.5%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	2.4%	67.1%	1.5%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	2.4%	67.1%	1.5%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	2.4%	67.1%	1.5%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	2.4%	67.1%	1.5%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	2.4%	67.1%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	2.9%	59.2%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	2.7%	59.2%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00	2.7%	59.2%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	2.7%	59.2%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	2.7%	59.2%	0.7%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	2.7%	59.2%	0.9%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	2.7%	59.2%	0.9%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	2.7%	59.2%	0.9%	29.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.9%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.9%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.9%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.9%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.4%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.4%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	2.4%	59.2%	0.4%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	2.4%	62.3%	0.4%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	3.7%	62.3%	0.4%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	3.7%	62.3%	0.4%	15.3%	4.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	3.7%	62.3%	0.4%	15.3%	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	64.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	59.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	57.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	56.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	55.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261014-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗