KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

14%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.80u

ICONNO 54.2¢Risks 54.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.20u · ICON −54.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	65.4%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	25.9%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	97.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	6.8%	100.0%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	23.5%	98.5%	36.9%	—	79.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	73.4%	97.1%	53.6%	—	60.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	91.9%	30.3%	75.5%	—	61.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	99.7%	70.5%	46.8%	—	63.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	20.1%	8.3%	29.3%	—	56.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	26.7%	59.3%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	72.4%	68.6%	33.0%	—	56.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	83.4%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	87.1%	7.0%	40.9%	—	44.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	95.4%	62.1%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	71.3%	7.2%	14.2%	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	78.9%	17.7%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	74.9%	9.4%	8.2%	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	77.2%	5.8%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	58.7%	5.9%	19.0%	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	83.9%	4.5%	1.6%	—	25.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	12.1%	4.8%	3.8%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	26.3%	11.9%	1.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	8.5%	9.5%	4.6%	8.0%	7.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.8%	7.2%	9.8%	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.5%	2.2%	3.7%	0.7%	5.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.5%	1.1%	1.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	62.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	57.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	54.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	53.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	54.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	52.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗