KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

14%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.80u

ICONNO 54.2¢Risks 54.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.20u · ICON −54.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	10.6%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	11.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	10.6%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	11.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	10.6%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	11.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	10.6%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	11.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	10.6%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	11.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	24.0%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	5.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	24.0%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	5.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	24.0%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	5.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	24.0%	91.5%	7.3%	45.1%	5.6%
2026-10-14T10:33:07+00:00	24.0%	91.5%	7.3%	7.8%	5.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	24.0%	86.1%	7.0%	7.8%	5.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	24.0%	86.1%	7.0%	7.8%	5.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	24.0%	86.1%	7.0%	7.8%	5.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	14.5%	86.1%	7.0%	7.8%	5.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	14.4%	86.0%	7.0%	7.7%	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	62.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	57.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	54.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	53.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	54.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	52.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗