KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

36%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

WN2NO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.85u · WN2 −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	59.9%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	21.1%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	96.5%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	4.8%	100.0%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	18.4%	97.7%	30.5%	—	73.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	67.0%	95.6%	46.4%	—	53.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	88.6%	23.9%	69.1%	—	53.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	99.4%	63.3%	39.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	14.8%	5.6%	22.5%	—	48.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	20.1%	50.9%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	64.6%	60.4%	25.5%	—	47.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	77.1%	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	81.6%	4.3%	32.2%	—	35.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	92.6%	52.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	62.4%	4.4%	9.4%	—	51.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	70.9%	11.9%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	66.0%	5.8%	4.9%	—	37.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	68.4%	3.3%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	47.8%	3.3%	12.5%	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	76.0%	2.4%	0.8%	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	7.2%	2.5%	1.9%	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.5%	7.0%	0.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.6%	5.2%	2.3%	4.3%	3.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.3%	3.7%	5.3%	—	4.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.2%	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	2.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.4%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	63.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	58.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	53.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	54.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	54.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗