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KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
86%
HRES
36%
AIFS
7%
ICON
7%
WN2
4%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u
VS
WN2NO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.85u · WN2 −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00IFS HRES: 35.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 35.7% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 35.7% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00IFS HRES: 35.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS HRES: 35.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS HRES: 35.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:0010-13 15:4110-13 21:4310-14 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:006.5%86.0%4.7%17.7%44.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:006.5%86.0%4.7%17.7%44.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:006.5%86.0%3.8%17.7%44.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:006.5%86.0%3.8%17.7%44.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:006.5%86.0%3.8%17.7%44.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:006.5%86.0%3.8%17.7%44.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:0014.1%86.0%3.8%17.7%6.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:0014.1%86.0%3.8%17.7%6.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:0014.1%86.0%3.8%17.7%6.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:0014.1%86.0%3.8%17.7%6.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:0014.1%86.5%3.8%35.7%6.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:0014.1%86.5%3.8%35.7%6.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:0014.1%86.5%3.8%35.7%6.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:006.8%86.5%3.8%35.7%6.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:006.8%86.5%3.8%35.7%6.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:006.8%86.5%3.8%35.7%6.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble86%63.6°F3.7°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%60.0°F3.4°F2026-10-13 14:00Pending
National Blend55%60.0°F4.2°F2026-10-13 06:00Pending
IFS HRES36%58.0°F4.1°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
AIFS Single7%53.4°F4.1°F2026-10-13 18:00Pending
ICON7%54.2°F3.5°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%54.0°F3.1°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗