KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 09 · 13:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.0¢Risks 3.02u

WN2NO 94.0¢Risks 46.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.98u · WN2 −46.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T07:38:46+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	1.3%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	1.3%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	1.3%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	1.3%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	1.3%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.3%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.4%
2026-10-08T15:16:02+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.4%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.4%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.4%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.4%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.4%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.5%	44.4%	2.4%
2026-10-09T01:48:23+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T03:19:15+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	9.8%	15.6%	0.3%	21.1%	6.7%
2026-10-09T07:51:20+00:00	0.5%	15.6%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	0.5%	15.6%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00	0.5%	15.6%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	0.5%	15.6%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	0.5%	15.6%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%
2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00	0.5%	15.6%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	0.5%	4.4%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	0.5%	4.4%	0.3%	10.6%	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	12%	65.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	64.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	65.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	63.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	60.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	59.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗