KMSP / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 09 · 13:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.0¢Risks 3.02u

WN2NO 94.0¢Risks 46.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.98u · WN2 −46.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	31.8%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	97.8%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	31.7%	0.1%	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	19.4%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.0%	0.0%	1.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	39.0%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	12%	65.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	64.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	65.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	63.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	60.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	59.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗