KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

88%

83%

82%

49%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.6¢Risks 71.60u

ICONNO 28.4¢Risks 28.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.40u · ICON −28.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00	82.5%	96.7%	84.9%	81.2%	48.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	82.5%	96.7%	87.9%	81.2%	48.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	82.5%	96.7%	87.9%	81.2%	48.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	82.5%	96.7%	87.9%	81.2%	48.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	82.5%	96.7%	87.9%	81.2%	48.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	81.8%	96.7%	87.9%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	81.8%	96.7%	87.9%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	81.8%	96.7%	87.9%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	81.8%	96.7%	87.9%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	81.8%	94.3%	88.5%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	81.8%	94.3%	88.5%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	81.8%	94.3%	88.5%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	83.1%	94.3%	88.5%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	83.1%	94.3%	88.5%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	83.1%	94.3%	88.5%	82.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	83.1%	94.3%	88.5%	82.0%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	54.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	53.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	53.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	53.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	52.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	50.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
ICON	49%	49.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 50°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗