KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

88%

83%

82%

49%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.6¢Risks 71.60u

ICONNO 28.4¢Risks 28.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.40u · ICON −28.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	19.3%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	73.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	98.8%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	82.8%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	62.0%	13.2%	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	99.9%	47.9%	82.5%	—	90.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	86.9%	70.3%	100.0%	—	95.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	63.5%	42.4%	95.0%	—	91.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	69.2%	64.1%	99.0%	—	87.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	74.2%	49.2%	93.9%	—	82.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	63.4%	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	87.4%	67.0%	82.8%	—	88.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	86.5%	74.3%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	87.1%	79.1%	89.8%	—	85.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	88.7%	76.9%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	82.9%	79.0%	87.9%	—	85.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	88.1%	76.6%	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	78.1%	77.3%	85.5%	—	81.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	71.2%	82.4%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	68.9%	63.9%	80.2%	—	69.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	76.0%	68.5%	50.0%	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	69.0%	57.0%	81.0%	20.7%	72.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	72.7%	63.0%	88.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	64.6%	71.3%	89.4%	21.7%	68.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	61.5%	80.0%	89.1%	—	72.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	65.7%	77.0%	87.4%	14.1%	71.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	58.3%	82.7%	80.9%	—	71.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	57.2%	87.0%	84.6%	12.2%	76.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	53.0%	86.4%	86.4%	—	77.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.4%	93.4%	79.7%	13.4%	63.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	77.2%	92.7%	79.7%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	54.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	53.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	53.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	53.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	52.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	50.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
ICON	49%	49.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 50°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗