KMSP / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 09 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

59%

45%

24%

15%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.0¢Risks 52.05u

AIFSNO 48.0¢Risks 47.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.95u · AIFS −47.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	7.3%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	94.9%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	35.5%	3.6%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	99.0%	22.4%	59.1%	—	72.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	65.0%	42.0%	99.7%	—	83.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	33.7%	16.9%	81.1%	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	38.2%	33.0%	93.6%	—	63.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	42.5%	19.5%	76.2%	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	30.3%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	60.4%	33.0%	52.6%	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	58.0%	40.2%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	58.2%	45.4%	63.6%	—	54.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	60.3%	41.5%	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	49.0%	43.2%	57.7%	—	52.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	57.0%	39.1%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	39.8%	38.8%	51.0%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	30.7%	44.7%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	27.3%	23.0%	40.3%	—	28.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	33.6%	25.8%	12.9%	—	26.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	25.1%	16.0%	38.5%	2.4%	28.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	27.3%	19.1%	48.8%	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	19.1%	24.6%	50.0%	2.1%	21.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	15.8%	32.5%	47.4%	—	23.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	17.3%	27.3%	42.0%	0.8%	22.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	11.8%	32.5%	30.0%	—	20.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	10.2%	37.2%	33.1%	0.4%	23.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	7.5%	33.8%	33.8%	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	5.2%	46.8%	22.6%	0.4%	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.1%	41.8%	20.3%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	63.4°F	8.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	55.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	54.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	52.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	49.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	47.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 54°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗