KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

96%

95%

88%

80%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 87.8¢Risks 43.88u

EPSNO 12.3¢Risks 6.13u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.13u · EPS −6.13u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	20.1%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	18.5%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	4.8%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	64.4%	0.2%	17.1%	—	79.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	1.3%	97.4%	—	83.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	95.2%	39.4%	95.0%	—	83.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	96.4%	53.2%	81.6%	—	89.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	99.2%	79.9%	98.5%	—	92.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	87.2%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	98.1%	85.4%	98.4%	—	93.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	99.6%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	95.9%	91.7%	96.2%	—	90.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	94.4%	93.6%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	95.1%	91.8%	97.9%	—	82.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	92.0%	90.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	90.6%	90.6%	95.8%	—	84.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	91.2%	88.9%	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	88.6%	88.6%	96.0%	0.0%	82.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	87.7%	93.3%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	84.7%	92.4%	96.7%	—	84.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	80.1%	92.6%	96.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	79.2%	93.7%	96.7%	40.1%	88.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	76.2%	95.7%	97.8%	—	90.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	74.9%	98.4%	97.0%	35.6%	89.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	84.5%	98.9%	95.3%	—	91.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	95.3%	99.4%	95.3%	45.7%	91.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	95.6%	99.5%	92.5%	—	86.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	94.8%	99.6%	89.0%	43.7%	89.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	98.6%	99.7%	95.5%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	66.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	65.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	63.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	59.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	60.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	55.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗