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KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
96%
HRES
96%
AIFS
95%
WN2
88%
EPS
80%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 87.8¢Risks 43.88u
VS
EPSNO 12.3¢Risks 6.13u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.13u · EPS −6.13u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.6% · 2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.6% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.6% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00ICON: 95.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00ICON: 95.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00ICON: 95.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00ICON: 95.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00ICON: 95.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00ICON: 95.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:0010-11 15:1110-11 21:1310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:0084.6%78.6%52.6%93.8%74.9%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:0084.6%78.6%52.6%93.8%74.9%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:0084.6%78.6%52.6%93.8%74.9%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:0084.6%78.6%67.0%93.8%74.9%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:0084.6%78.6%67.0%93.8%74.9%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:0084.6%78.6%67.0%93.8%74.9%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:0095.0%78.6%67.0%95.5%96.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:0095.0%78.6%67.0%95.5%96.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:0095.0%78.6%67.0%95.5%96.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:0095.0%78.6%67.0%95.5%96.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:0095.0%78.6%67.0%95.5%96.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:0095.0%79.6%87.8%95.5%95.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:0095.0%79.6%87.8%95.5%95.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:0095.0%79.6%87.8%95.5%95.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:0095.3%79.6%87.8%95.5%95.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:0095.3%79.6%87.8%95.5%95.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:0095.3%79.6%87.8%95.5%95.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON96%66.7°F7.0°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
IFS HRES96%65.6°F6.6°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
AIFS Single95%63.4°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%59.8°F4.5°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble80%60.2°F6.9°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%55.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 14:00Pending
National Blend52%55.0°F10.0°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗