KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

82%

72%

72%

64%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 79.5¢Risks 79.50u

WN2NO 20.5¢Risks 20.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.50u · WN2 −20.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	16.2%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	42.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	3.4%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	57.7%	0.1%	13.0%	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.8%	96.1%	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	93.0%	32.3%	92.7%	—	78.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	94.5%	45.2%	75.8%	—	85.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	98.7%	73.5%	97.4%	—	88.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	82.2%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	96.8%	79.8%	97.3%	—	89.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	99.3%	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	93.4%	87.6%	93.9%	—	85.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	91.2%	90.0%	—	—	74.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	92.1%	87.4%	96.2%	—	76.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	87.6%	84.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	85.5%	85.5%	92.9%	—	77.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	86.2%	83.1%	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	82.4%	82.4%	93.0%	0.0%	74.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	81.0%	88.8%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	76.7%	87.3%	93.9%	—	75.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	70.7%	87.4%	93.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	69.2%	88.8%	93.7%	28.7%	80.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	65.1%	91.8%	95.4%	—	83.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	63.2%	96.5%	93.9%	24.0%	82.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	74.7%	97.5%	90.8%	—	84.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	90.5%	98.4%	90.5%	31.8%	83.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	90.8%	98.5%	85.6%	—	76.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	89.0%	98.8%	79.7%	29.0%	80.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	96.3%	99.1%	90.1%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	65.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	62.5°F	7.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	58.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	72%	61.1°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	57.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	56.0°F	8.4°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗