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KMSP / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
EPS
82%
AIFS
72%
ICON
72%
WN2
64%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 79.5¢Risks 79.50u
VS
WN2NO 20.5¢Risks 20.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.50u · WN2 −20.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.5% · 2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00IFS HRES: 94.8% · 2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 01:2910-11 03:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:0063.3%81.2%58.8%94.8%71.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:0063.3%81.5%64.2%94.8%71.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:0063.3%81.5%64.2%94.8%71.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:0063.3%81.5%64.2%94.8%71.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:0071.7%81.5%64.2%94.8%71.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:0071.7%81.5%64.2%94.8%71.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:0071.7%81.5%64.2%94.8%71.5%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:0071.7%81.5%64.2%94.8%71.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%65.8°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%62.5°F7.8°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single72%58.7°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending
ICON72%61.1°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 264%57.3°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
National Blend52%56.0°F8.4°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261017-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗